DYNA JOURNAL ENGINEERING

Recall that after the decline in the critical years of COVID-19, where overall emissions marked a drop to 34.4 GT in 2020 with 1.9 GT less than the previous year, they fully recovered in 2021 and have continued to grow to 37.2 GT today, exactly 0.41 GT between 2022 and 2023, a 1.1% rise to an all-time high, 65% of which has been produced by increased coal consumption for power generation. The IEA blames the generalised global drought as one of the causes, which is responsible for the increase of 0.17 GT between 2022 and 2023.
If we look only at the so-called advanced economies, we see that despite increasing their GDP by 1.7% in 2023, their emissions have decreased by 4.5% (0.52 GT) due to a number of factors, such as the strong deployment of renewables, the shift from coal to gas in the United States, but also weaker industrial production in some countries and milder weather.
China's emissions increased by around 0.565 GT in 2023, undoubtedly the largest increase globally, with the country's economic growth being the most emissions-intensive post-pandemic and despite the fact that it has continued to add the most in the world in terms of renewable electricity generation, perhaps also because of the poor hydrological year. China's per capita emissions are now 15% higher than those of advanced economies.
In India, strong GDP growth increased emissions by 0.190 GT. But the monsoon, which always increases electricity demand, brought low rainfall and reduced hydropower production, increasing coal-fired generation and contributing to about a quarter of the increase in its total emissions in 2023. Despite this, India's per capita emissions remain well below the global average. Two key questions remain: how much will countries that demand more electricity generation and more vehicles for their people increase their emissions, and when will a permanent and sustained global emissions decline be achieved?