REVISTA DYNA ENERGÍA

Key words:

precio de la electricidad, mercado diario, variables, demanda, producción, predicción, electricity price, daily market, variables, demand, production, prediction.

Article type:

ARTICULO DE INVESTIGACION / RESEARCH ARTICLE

Section:

RESEARCH ARTICLES

IABSTRACT:
In this article, the results of the statistical analysis performed over the daily market price and a number of variables highly correlated with it are presented. Such variables include production technologies, demand, and markets.
This analysis constitute the basis for the development of a prediction model for the five-days ahead wholesle electricity market.
The model has been developed in the framework of a European project which aim is to provide users with a tool for an efficient consumption management. The development through the R statistical software and programming language has allowed the use of reproducible research techniques and teamwork in all the phases os the project in an integrated way (connection to databases, visualization, exploratory data analysis, modeling, prediction and reporting), as well
as the parameterization of different linear models and the selection of all available variables affecting markets and production.
In addition, in order to gather all the temporal structure, a rolling-horizon strategy has been addressed, resulting in a methodology that automatically adapts to new data and can generate predicions with relative errors below 10%.

Keywords: electricity price, daily market, variables, demand, production, prediction.