REVISTA DYNA ENERGÍA

It should not be forgotten that COP28 is being held in the United Arab Emirates, a major producer of crude oil and gas, and the institutional declarations are giving sometimes differing opinions.
Especially in the energy sector, structural changes are taking place that portend oil and gas demand peaking at the end of this decade, although it will not decline fast enough to meet the Paris Agreement and the 1.5°C maximum warming target. However, if the commitments made were met, oil and gas demand in 2050 would be 45% lower than today and the temperature increase could be limited to 1.7°C compared to 75% lower if the 1.5°C target and net zero emissions could be maintained, which is already estimated to be almost unattainable by that date.
Moreover, the continuity of the oil industry, in an emissions reduction scenario, starts with containing its own emissions: oil and gas production, transport and processing generate almost 15% of global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. To meet a 1.5°C scenario, these emissions must be reduced by more than 60% by 2030 from current levels and the emissions intensity of global oil and gas operations should approach zero by the early 2040s. However, the level of investments related to these targets is not yet significant.
In the existing debate on the oil and gas industry in the energy transition, two common misconceptions must be avoided. The first is that the transition can only be led by changes in demand. "When the energy world changes, so will we" is not an adequate response to the immense challenges ahead. An unbalanced focus on supply reduction is equally unproductive, as it leads to increased risk of price spikes and market volatility. In practice, no one committed to change should wait for someone else to move first. Successful and orderly transitions are collaborative, with suppliers working with consumers and governments to expand new markets for low-emission products and services.